Research

Publications

Abstract
Who commits crime? Theoretically, risk tolerant and impatient people are more likely to commit crime because they care less about the risks of apprehension and punishment. By linking experimental data on risk tolerance and impatience of young men to administrative crime records, we find empirical support for this hypothesis. For example, crime rates are 8-10 pp. higher for the most risk tolerant people compared to the most risk averse. A theoretical implication is that those who are most prone to commit crime are also those who are least responsive to stricter law enforcement. Risk tolerance and impatience significantly predict property crime while self-control is a stronger predictor of crimes of passion (violent, drug, and sexual offenses).

Social Positions and Fairness Views on Inequality
w. Claus Thustrup Kreiner and Stefanie Stantcheva
The Review of Economic Studies, 2023, 90(6), pp. 3083-3118
[VoxEU] [NBER Digest] [econimate] [Videnskab.dk (in Danish)] [Weekendavisen (in Danish)]

Abstract
We link survey data on Danish people’s perceived income positions and fairness views on inequality within various reference groups to administrative records on their reference groups, income histories, and life events. People are, on average, well-informed about the income levels of their reference groups. Yet, lower-ranked respondents in all groups tend to overestimate their own position among others because they believe others’ incomes are lower than is the case, while the opposite holds for higher-ranked respondents. Misperceptions of positions in reference groups relate to proximity to other individuals, transparency norms, and visible signals of income. People view inequalities within their co-workers and education groups as significantly more unfair than overall inequality, yet underestimate inequality the most exactly within these groups. Views on the fairness of inequalities are strongly correlated with an individual’s current position, move with shocks like unemployment or promotions, and change when experimentally showing people their actual positions. However, the higher perceived unfairness of income differences within co-workers and education groups stays unchanged. The theoretical framework shows that this can have important implications for redistribution policy.

Field of Study and Financial Problems: How Economics Reduces the Risk of Default
The Review of Financial Studies, 2023, 36(11), pp. 4677-4711
[Djøfbladet (in Danish)]

Abstract
This paper documents how extensive economic education can reduce the risk of getting into financial trouble by comparing people who enter business and economics programs with people who enter other higher education programs. To identify the causal effect, I exploit GPA admission thresholds that quasi-randomize applicants near the thresholds into different higher education programs. I find that admission to an economics program reduces the probability of loan default and delinquency by one half. This large reduction is associated with changes in financial behavior, but it is not associated with differences in the level or stability of people’s income.

Working Papers

Economic Preferences Predict Education Choices
w. T. Epper, E. Fehr, C. T. Kreiner, S. Leth-Petersen, and B. Zafar
Draft available. Submitted.

Abstract
Do individual preferences shape the choice of higher education? We combine experimentally elicited time and risk preferences for a large representative sample of 18-19-year-old Danes with administrative data on the choice of higher educational program, earnings trajectories by program, prior school performance, family background and demographics. We find that more patient individuals choose longer educational programs and programs with steeper early-career earnings profiles. Greater risk aversion predicts selection into programs with lower earnings dispersion and reduced downside risk. These patterns remain after controlling for background characteristics, indicating that economic preferences shape educational choices above and beyond individual ability levels and family background.

Nominal Loss Aversion and Portfolio Allocation
w. Thomas Stephens and Jean-Robert Tyran
Draft available.

Abstract
This paper shows that nominal thinking shapes how loss aversion affects household portfolio choice. We show that Nominal Loss Aversion (NLA) reduces stock holdings by eliciting an experimental measure of NLA and matching it with administrative data on financial portfolios on a sample of the Danish population. We find that stock shares are systematically and persistently lower for individuals with high NLA. In addition, high NLA in 2009 predicts 30 percent lower net wealth ten years later. Our findings suggest NLA as a powerful loss-aversion-based explanation—complementary to myopic loss aversion—for why households hold relatively few stocks.

Work in progress

Perceptions of the role of education for intergenerational mobility
w. Claus Thustrup Kreiner and Stefanie Stantcheva

Student Aid and Mobility of BA students
w. M. K. Humlum, E. Mattana, and H. S. Nielsen

How do job seekers apply for jobs and can we help them do better?
w. Nikolaj A. Harmon